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95% confidence interval:
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Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 6858 games),
played 2-ply (medium), cube 3-ply,
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* 2. R bar/21 24/23* 0.225 (-0.083)
Live cube rollout: 0.269
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.046 Ž±0.033,
- live cube: 0.269 Ž±0.028.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 7205 games),
played 2-ply (medium), cube 3-ply,
seed 1, without race database.
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95% confidence interval:
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- live cube: 0.427 ¡Þ0.005.
Rollout settings:
Truncated rollout, depth 7,
180 games (equiv. 41194 games),
played 3-ply score-based (huge, 100%), cube 3-ply,
seed 100, without race database.
2. R 23/17 8/6 0.390 (-0.026)
Live cube rollout: 0.387
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.504 ¡Þ0.016,
- live cube: 0.387 ¡Þ0.005.
Rollout settings:
Truncated rollout, depth 7,
180 games (equiv. 32074 games),
played 3-ply score-based (huge, 100%), cube 3-ply,
seed 100, without race database.
3. R 23/15 0.384 (-0.032)
Live cube rollout: 0.399
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.496 ¡Þ0.017,
- live cube: 0.399 ¡Þ0.006.
Rollout settings:
Truncated rollout, depth 7,
180 games (equiv. 24091 games),
played 3-ply score-based (huge, 100%), cube 3-ply,
seed 100, without race database.
4. R 11/5 8/6 0.371 (-0.045)
Live cube rollout: 0.371
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.497 ¡Þ0.017,
- live cube: 0.371 ¡Þ0.006.
Rollout settings:
Truncated rollout, depth 7,
180 games (equiv. 23091 games),
played 3-ply score-based (huge, 100%), cube 3-ply,
seed 100, without race database.
5. M 23/17 11/9 0.340 (-0.077)
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.409 ¡Þ0.018.
Rollout settings:
Truncated rollout, depth 5,
3888 games (equiv. 31016 games),
played 1-ply score-based,
seed 7, with race database.


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283 [link] Re:¿·È×ÁÐϻƻ±¡¤ÎÌäÂ꽸¡¡2001.5/5 Sengoku 2001/05/05 02:45
ÀĤϤȤˤ«¤¯¤³¤Î¥²¡¼¥à¤Ç 50% °Ê¾å¤¢¤ì¤Ð¥ê¥À¥Ö¥ë¤Ç¤­¤Þ¤¹¡£

Çò¤ÏÀĤΥÀ¥Ö¥ë¤ò¡§
¥Ñ¥¹¤¹¤ë¤È¡¢2away-4away 32% match equity
¥Æ¥¤¥¯¤·¤Æ¾¡¤Ä¤È¥Þ¥Ã¥Á¾¡¤Á¡¢100% match equity
¥Æ¥¤¥¯¤·¤ÆÉ餱¤ë¤È¥Þ¥Ã¥ÁÉ餱¡¢0% match equity

¤Ä¤Þ¤ê¥Æ¥¤¥¯¤¹¤ë¤Ë¤ÏºÇÄã 32% ¤Î¾¡Î¨¤¬É¬ÍפǤ¹¡£

¤³¤Î¥Ý¥¸¥·¥ç¥ó¤ÇÀĤ¬¾¡¤Ä¤Ë¤Ï¡¢

(1) ÀÄ:4 men off (4 Ä̤ê)

(2) ÀÄ:3/off, 3/off (13)¡¢Çò:2 men off (30)

(3) ÀÄ:3/off, 1/off (9)¡¢Çò:2 men off (30)¡¢ÀÄ:3 men off(6)

(4) ÀÄ:3/off, 3/1 (8)¡¢Çò:2 men off(30)¡¢ÀÄ:3 men off(6)

(5) ÀÄ:3/off 3/2 (2)¡¢Çò:2 men off(30)¡¢ÀÄ:3 men off(2)

¤Î£µÄ̤ê¤Î¥±¡¼¥¹¤¬¤¢¤Ã¤Æ¡¢Á´Éô¤ò­¤·¹ç¤ï¤»¤ë¤ÈÀĤÎ
¥È¡¼¥¿¥ë¤Î¾¡Î¨¤¬·×»»¤Ç¤­¤ë¤«¤é¡¢(M=36 ¤È¤·¤Æ¡Ë

W(blue) = 4/M + 13x30/M^2 + (9x30x34 + 8x30x6 + 2x30x6)/M^3

¤³¤³¤Ç¡¢

9x30x34 = 9x2x15x2x17 = 36x15x17 = 36x255
( 15x17 ¤Ï (16-1)x(16+1) = 16^2 -1 = 256-1 = 255 ¤È°ì½Ö¤Ç·×»»½ÐÍè¤Þ¤¹¡Ë

8x30x6 = 8x5x6x6 = 36x40

2x30x6 = 2x3x10x6 = 36x10

¤À¤«¤é¡¢(3)+(4)+(5) ¤Ï (255+40+10)/M^2 = 305/M^2 ¤È´Êñ¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£

W(blue) = 4/M + (390+305)/M^2 = 4/M + 695/M^2

695 ¤òÂçÂÎ 700 ¤È¤ß¤ì¤Ð 7/36 ¤¬ÂçÂÎ 0.1944 ¤Ç¤½¤ÎÌó1%¸º¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤«¤é
695/36 ¡Á 700/36 - 1% = 19.44 - 1% ¡Á 19.3

·ë¶É¡¢

W(blue) = (4 + 19.3)/M = 23.3/36 = 64.7% > 50%

W(while) = 100% - 64.7% = 35.3% > 32%

Redouble/Take
284 [link] ÄûÀµ Sengoku 2001/05/05 06:23
¸í> (5) ÀÄ:3/off 3/2 (2)¡¢Çò:2 men off(30)¡¢ÀÄ:3 men off(2)
Àµ> (5) ÀÄ:3/off (2)¡¢Çò:2 men off(30)¡¢ÀÄ:3 men off(5)

¸í> W(blue) = 4/M + 13x30/M^2 + (9x30x34 + 8x30x6 +¡¡2x30x6)/M^3
˵> W(blue) = 4/M + 13x30/M^2 + (9x30x34 + 8x30x6 + 2x30x5)/M^3

¸í> 2x30x6 = 2x3x10x6 = 36x10
˵> 2x30x5 = 2x3x10x(6-1) = 36x10 - 60

°Ê²¼Á´ÉôÄûÀµ>

60/36 = 5/3 ¡Á 1.6667 ¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤«¤é 60/M^3 ¡Á 1.7/M^2

¤À¤«¤é¡¢(3)+(4)+(5) ¤Ï (255+40+10-1.7)/M^2 = 303.3/M^2

W(blue) = 4/M + (390+303.3)/M^2 - 60/M^3 = 4/M + 693.3/M^2

693.3 ¤òÂçÂÎ 700 ¤Î -1% ¤È¤ß¤ì¤Ð 7/36 ¤¬ÂçÂÎ 0.1944 ¤Ç¤½¤ÎÌó1%¸º¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤«¤é
695/36 ¡Á 700/36 - 1% = 19.44 - 1% ¡Á 19.3

·ë¶É¡¢
W(blue) = (4 + 19.3)/M = 23.3/36 = 64.7%

W(while) = 100% - 64.7% = 35.3%

Redouble/Take

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¤Á¤Ê¤ß¤ËÅÅÂî¤Ç·×»»¤¹¤ë¤È W(blue) = 64.609% ¤Ç¤·¤¿¡£
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